At that time of year, players will be on the move. Even with their last six winning streak, Cubs Standing is very bad 40-58. This 408 win percentage gives them a little breathing room to avoid the Cubs’ worst record ever, but they’ll still likely flirt with a 100 loss season when all is said and done. This is a team in Selling Mode and gossip driving the content. I’m here today with my tips and tricks to not get caught up in rumors and fake commercials.
blue check marks
This first mistake is very basic, but really an easy one to make. Beware Ken Rosenthal, Jeff Bassan, and every other Twitter account violating a generally popular and trusted MLB news feed. There will be dozens, if not hundreds, of online trolls looking to have a little fun trading our favorite players for funny deals. They will face the problem of creating their account, downloading the same avatar of the most famous character and even copying their bio. Sometimes they’ll use graphics that mimic Twitter’s blue check mark, so it’s hard to take a quick look and be sure.
There are still ways to thwart these scammers.
Check your followers accounts before you invest too much in any single rumor or return. The real Ken Rosenthal has 1.3 million followers and he posts a lot of arc links in his media. It is unlikely that any fraudulent account will be able to achieve this in the short term. Finally, never forget that sometimes the most prominent accounts get hacked, so beware of that too. Who can forget Crypto Day by Jeff Bassan?
Not all rumors are created equal – inside sources matter
One of the things I always try to keep in mind when looking at any trade rumor is the genesis of the article. Who started the rumors? Do they have an incentive to start it? Can you get to know them even a little bit?
There is a big difference between “MLB executives believe” and “a source inside Cubs’ front office said.” The former might be rival CEOs speculating, or even trying to motivate the Cubs to make a particular deal. The latter is inside information from a person affiliated with the team who speaks without identifying himself. “Player X should be available…” could literally mean that someone like me spent a day in Spotrac looking at expiring contracts and team records, putting two and two together, and determining that Team X could move any player that might not be around next season or the next.
It helps to be skeptical and to remember that journalists benefit from sharing content. They have an internal incentive to make their rumors as powerful as possible. If they are resorting to language like “must be available,” you should give the credit you deserve.
Deals are often announced after the deadline
In 2019, I was finally ahead of the curve. I had a trading deadline ready to go, I was dropping information as it happened. I was flying through the analysis and back. The words were flowing. I was willing to set the cubs on fire for not making a big move with splitting on the line. My article has been published Within five minutes of the end of the trade deadline I have submitted the following:
Despite all the talk of feeling urgency, this team seemed to lack urgency at crucial times this year. The urgency at best seemed like a 50-50 bet, a matter of chance. Will bats appear in a big role? Who do you know? Will the bulls be able to hold their one-round lead late? Possible and possible not. Do you have a clear approach to most of the season? Keep riding Pedro Strop or Steve Cishek there even after signing, Kimbrel won’t cost a draft pick anymore. It’s not as though eight blown passes might be the difference in the narrowest division in baseball in September.
And for this last group of people, I present to you the Cubs on Deadline Trade, deciding to go home or go home by switching reserve catcher Martin Maldonado to Tony Kemp, while also acquiring LOOGY Derek Holland for cash and right-handed arm Pauline David Phelps. for a secondary league arm.
It’s generous to call this messing around in the margins, but let’s take a closer look at what the Cubs got at 32-year-old Phelps and 27-year-old companion man Kemp. You can read More about the Holland deal here.
Within 15 minutes, the Cubs announced the Nick Castellanos trade and I had to tweet this:
It is a good idea to wait until 30 minutes after the trade deadline to ensure that trades are completed.
Lists of potential clients vary – a lot
Here at BCB, we’re in luck that Josh Timmers covers minors so we know what’s going on with Cubs’ odds on the farm. He does a great job covering the inside and outside details and beyond a single paragraph that you can find for potential spotters throughout the league.
It is very tempting to skip that and do your own research during the trade deadline. Listen, I’m an old debate coach. I’m all for your own research. However, an important part of doing your research is knowing your sources well. One of the reasons that making possibilities is so difficult and time-consuming is that exploration takes a tremendous amount of knowledge and time. Additionally, not all potential customer lists make the same assumptions.
for example, American baseball ranks the Cubs farm system at number 15 in the 2022 season, FanGraphs preliminary rankings ranked 6th in Cubs. There is almost a third of the league between these two rankings, how could they be so different?
Well, there are a lot of reasons. Some of the MiLB classifications use a methodology that prioritizes proximity to disciplines. Others look at raw talent in the system with less regard for any potential customer’s arrival history. You can have a really solid farm system but if all your prospects are in Low A, the Next Great Cubs are still a long way off.
Don’t just copy the most optimistic or pessimistic reading of the predictions returned for your favorite players. Read them all. Read between the lines. Most importantly, look at the methodology that was followed in those classifications. Additionally, remember that baseball prospects are humans who will face a lot of challenges as they make their way into the majors, and prospects aren’t promises.
In 2016, I was hanging out with my grandmother for her birthday as the most important cubs trade deadline of my life was heading towards all of us. One of the many fake Ken Rosenthals posted that the Cubs had replaced Kyle Schwarber with Aroldis Chapman. I didn’t realize it was a fake account and didn’t lose sight of some of the words no one should say near their young 85-year-old grandmother. Fortunately for me, this was my oath like a sailor’s grandmother who took it all in stride unlike my conservative Catholic grandmother who would surely feel compelled to say some novenas to my soul had the situation been reversed.
The 2021 trade deadline was plenty. I found it painful in the same way as bad breakups in the past. I don’t expect this year to be any better. But when the dust settles after August 2 and I find the team to go to with Wilson Contreras for the rest of the season, baseball will still be baseball. The Cubs will still be playing in the largest stadium on the planet and the ivy will be brown on opening day and brilliant green by June. They will not lose forever.
Feel your feelings, freak out and breathe here if you need to, get excited about prospects if that’s your jam, but remember we’re all fans in our own way. At the end of the day, there are many things more important than baseball.