On paper, the Boston Red Sox and Miami Marlins are ideal business partners. The Red Sox have a desperate need for a controlled start in the top of their rotation and the Marlins could use a big bat.
They both have the assets to make such a deal happen. In fact, Barry Jackson and Craig Mesch of the Miami Herald reported that the Marlins are Interested in trading “important player” For the Red Sox first base, Triston Casas.
Tomase: Were the Red Sox to trade Casas for one of the Marlins’ little arms?
Casas enters 2023 as the No. 2 ranked prospect in the Red Sox organization and projects to be the team’s Opening Day starter at first base. Miami would almost certainly have to part with one of their best rookie players in order to get him away from Boston. Jackson and Miche list Pablo Lopez, Trevor Rogers and Edward Cabrera as the most likely candidates to be transferred. Jesus Lozardo’s name didn’t appear in the Miami Herald report, but the Southern Claw is another option that might interest the Red Sox front office. Sandy Alcantara, winner of the 2022 Cy Young National Championship, is off the table.
Also worth noting is the Red Sox – after a short star loss Xander Bogaerts In free agency – you reportedly have He has expressed interest in Marlins center Joey Wendell And the Miguel Rojas. Perhaps one of them could be included in a trade package with one of the above starters.
While the Marlins’ little arms aren’t exactly household names, they would be significant upgrades to the Red Sox’ starting spinning top. But would it be worth adding one of these shooters away from one of the most exciting prospects in the organization?
To help answer that question, here’s a breakdown of every Marlins starter that could be available in a deal.
Pablo Lopez, RHP
Lopez was a popular name ahead of the 2021 MLB trade deadline, so it’s no surprise that he’s been the subject of trade rumors this offseason. It seems likely that the Marlins pitcher will be transferred.
The right-hander is entering his season aged 27 and has been dominated by the team through the 2024 campaign. Although there are question marks, he has shown real improvement over the past two seasons. In 2021, he set a Major League Baseball record by striking out the first nine strikeouts of a game against the Atlanta Braves. He finished the season with a 3.07 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 20 starts.
The catch is that prior to 2022, Lopez had never pitched more than 111.1 innings in a season. He finally topped that mark with 180 innings pitched across 32 starts last year as he compiled a 3.75 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Solid numbers, but trading Casas for another mid-rotation arm who’s only hit 30+ once in his five-year career seems unwise.
Jesus Luzardo, LHP
The Marlins acquired Lozardo from the Oakland Athletics in exchange for outfielder Starling Mart before the 2021 trade deadline. The 25-year-old initially struggled in Miami, but showed flashes of his massive potential in 2022.
Luzardo posted a 3.32 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 18 starts (100.1 innings) with the Marlins last season. He missed part of the year due to a forearm strain he suffered in May. However, the former prospect pitched more than 100 innings and showed serious rise for the first time in his big league career.
Lozardo is a candidate for the 2023 breakout campaign if he can stay healthy and be under the team’s grip for four more seasons. It doesn’t make sense for the Red Sox to part with Casas for an unfixed arm with injury concerns.
Trevor Rogers, LHP
Rogers was exceptional for the Marlins in 2021. He was named to his first All-Star Game and finished the year with a 2.64 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 25 starts (133 innings pitched). He finished second in NL Rookie of the Year voting behind Cincinnati Reds player Jonathan India.
The 25-year-old left-hander returns to Earth in 2022. He posted a 4-11 record with a 5.47 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP in 23 starts (107 innings pitched).
In order to get the Casas, the Marlins will no doubt have to include another piece or two with Rogers. His slump in 2022 has ruined his commercial value, though being in control of the team for another four years is a plus. This just doesn’t move the needle like Lopez, or the last arm on this list…
Edward Cabrera, RHP
Cabrera was the Marlins’ second-stringer and showed flashes of his stellar potential in 2022 after a rough start to his career in 2021. The 24-year-old right-hander had a 3.01 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP through 14 starts (71.2 innings pitched). He is under the control of the team for another six years.
As tempting as Cabrera’s cap may be, the Red Sox already have a young former top prospect in his rotation at Brayan Bello. Trading Casas for Cabrera could be an interesting exchange for young talent, but keeping Casas’ putter in the lineup is probably more beneficial than adding another loose arm into the mix. Of course, the potential upside of the Bello/Cabrera 1-2 punch in the spin is dream fun.