Florida State is coming home from losing on the road to Duke last Saturday and now gets the chance to play Georgia Tech who just picked up an upset win over Miami this week. It should give FSU a good chance to build on some of the things they’ve figured out over the last couple of games.
This game will take place at 1 p.m. on the regional sports networks, live from the Donald L. Tucker Civic Center in Tallahassee, Florida.
A breakdown of the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Heading into the week, Georgia Tech didn’t win an ACC game, being given a rough start. UNC, Clemson, and Virginia are all strong opponents so far this season, and it wasn’t unreasonable for GT to be 0-3 during this stretch, but they surprised many with whom they defeated in their first win over the ACC: Miami. Miami was heading into the game 13-1, with its only defeat coming on a neutral field against a good Maryland team, having beaten Rutgers, Virginia and Providence. They have a good resume. So when they traveled to Atlanta and lost to the Yellow Jackets, many eyes were opened and many wondered how it happened.
First, Miami was an icy cold 3, just 5/32 overall. Nijel Pack was 3/12 and Isaiah Wong was 0/8 from deep. When these two struggle this much, it’s hard to win matches. Norchad Oumier fouled 21 minutes for Miami, which opened up 14 offensive rebounds for GT. Second, Lance Terry was great, scoring 24 points on just 13 shots (6 free throws), grabbing 6 rebounds, and grabbing a steal as well.
Terry moved on from Gardner-Webb where he averaged a career 10.9 PPG and 2.7 RPG. He’s been streaky this season, never scoring in double digits in back-to-back games, but he clearly has the talent to score with the best of them, as he showed against Miami.
Georgia Tech’s MVP was Miles Kelly, as the only Yellow Jacket to average 14.5 PPG, 3.4 RPG and 1.0 APG at shooting splits of 42.2/39.3/88.2. He’s been in double figures in every but two games at the end of November, and has averaged 18 PPG in ACC play to date. The Kelly/Matthew Cleveland matchup should be a lot of fun. He and Terry are the only players who shoot better than 33% of 3 on the team.
Dallan Coleman was someone heavily recruited by FSU a few years ago, but GT managed to give him more early playing time, and he started to get the most out of him, averaging 9.7 PPG and 3.0 RPG. It’s still somewhat incompetent, shooting only 40.2% from the ground and 32.8% from the depths. Coleman is one of those players who hit more shots, his efficiency decreases.
Jalon Moore is another scorer close to double figures at 9.5 PPG and 5.8 RPG, and is one of the best defenders on the team averaging 2.3 blocks + steals per game. 2.1 offensive rebounds per game is something FSU will have to keep an eye on.
This is a team that is still figuring out what it wants to be. 9 different players have started at least 2 games, and all of those 9 players play 12 minutes per game or more. Javon Franklin, Rodney Howard, and Deivion Smith are all great rebounders, aggregating 5.4 offensive rebounds per game. Smith and Kyle Sturdivant are the best playmakers on the team, averaging 5.8 assists per game. And then there’s Tristan Maxwell, who… plays? I’m honestly not sure what he’s good at.
Seminole collapse, Florida
It was a disappointing result for Florida State in Durham last weekend as they lost 86-67 to Duke. The coaching staff was proud of the way they fought and didn’t give up in the end, but they could never find the momentum they needed. Anytime they had a glimmer of hope, a bad pass in transition or a missed free throw kills everything. They still have to be pleased with the way Caleb Mills and Darren Green Jr. performed, and Matthew Cleveland added a fourth double-double with mostly free throws.
This will be a tough game against a tricky Georgia Tech defense, and FSU’s key ball handlers in Jalen Warley, Chandler Jackson, and Caleb Mills. They will have to be strong with the ball, make the right passes at the right time, and organize things to make sure the attack runs as smoothly as possible.
Papa Miller only has to sit through one more game before he can get back to playing. I know he’s chomping a bit to get back out there, and FSU can’t wait to get him. We’ll talk about it more in the next game.
Injury report
Jaylan Jenney is out for the season with a torn ACL.
Cameron Fletcher will miss the season with a knee injury.
Papa Miller will return for the next game against Wake Forest, but he will have to sit out this last game.
Jeremiah Pembry is seen wearing a shoe at the Duke game.
Tristan Maxwell and Jordan Mika have missed the last two games due to an illness for Georgia Tech, but they will likely return for this game. They were potential for the Miami game but they haven’t played yet, I expect them to be good in this game.
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Expected appetizers
Florida
G: Galen Warley
G: Caleb Mills
G: Darren Green Jr
Q: Matthew Cleveland
A: Cameron Korn
Georgia Tech
G: Lance Terry
G: Dalan Coleman
G: Miles Kelly
F: Gallon Moore
C: Rodney Howard
game keys
Don’t force 3s
Georgia Tech has the best 3-point defense in the ACC, allowing teams to shoot just 27.3% of their 3-pointers this season. As Miami discovered this previous game, if you take too many 3s, you take away valuable shots that you could have had otherwise. Taking 20 3s is probably too much (Miami took 32, making 5), so unless FSU has a hot 3 in this game, they should focus on getting in.
Strong with basketball
Even without the pesky Jose Alvarado, this is a tough GT defense to score on. In terms of effective field goal percentage, they allow one of the 50 lowest percentages. They don’t force as many turnovers or block as many shots as normal, but you still can’t be lousy with basketball. Make smart, crisp passes, and create open shots with the movement of the ball.
Free throw variation
Florida must defend without being contaminated in this matter. In games where Georgia Tech’s free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempts) is less than 30%, the score is just 2-5, with wins over lowly Alabama State and Northern Illinois. On the other hand, FSU needs to get to the free throw line. In games where Georgia Tech allows a free throw rate of over 36%, the ratio is 2-4.
prediction game
FSU preferred by 2.5 points with an over/under 144.5.
Florida State should have enough athletes to defend Georgia Tech, it will really depend on whether FSU can get high quality shots and enough free throws to score enough. I love ‘Noles’ on this one.
FSU 72 GT 68
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