This “single biggest predictor of future stock market returns” has fallen sharply – that’s a bullish sign

Chapel Hill, North Carolina – Much of the bull market’s excess has been addressed, according to the “Single Greatest Predictor of Future Stock Market Returns.” This is good news. I’m pointing to the pointer, It was first suggested by the Philosophical Economics blog in 2013, based on the average allocation of a family’s portfolio to … Read more

Why stock market bears are eyeing June lows after S&P 500 dips below 3900

Goodbye, summer bounce. The S&P 500 ended Friday below the crucial chart support level that has been a battleground in recent years, leading technical analysts to warn of a possible test of stock market lows in June. “Over the past three years, at the level of [S&P 500] It closed below that on Friday for … Read more

Even after the market crashes, investors are still making two implausible assumptions about the next six months, this economist says

This is not the first time that inflation numbers have surprised the market. The bad news was the S&P 500 SPX, + 0.30% It saw the biggest one-day drop in two years, dropping 4.2%. The good news is if you check your 401(k) it will only go back to last week’s levels, futures are holding … Read more

The CPI shows inflation slowing down in the US again due to lower gas prices. However, prices for almost everything are rising

Numbers: The drop in gasoline prices last month brought down the second consecutive US inflation reading as the CPI rose by just 0.1% in August. But the report also shows that inflation has spread more widely across the economy and is set to prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates sharply again. Economists polled … Read more

Bad news for stocks: The Fed will be surprised by how much higher interest rates will affect the economy, says BlackRock

Federal policymakers are about to surprise themselves — and not in a good way when it comes to stocks and other assets viewed as risky, according to analysts at the BlackRock Investment Institute. BlackRock argued that investors are dealing with a “system shift” as the COVID-19 pandemic upended an unusual period of moderate fluctuations in … Read more