Thursday night football must be lopsided and ugly, so here’s what to bet on

Five weeks after showcasing some of the worst teams in football, Thursday night’s Amazon game has turned a corner The Ravens beat Tampa Bay, 27-22. despite of Tom BradyBucks have taken a step back this season, and having a competitive game with two strong teams has been a great change. Unfortunately, we’re not likely to see the same level of competitiveness this week, but we do have a chance to see the only undefeated NFL team to continue their streak.

The Philadelphia Eagles (7-0) is the favorite on the 13.5-point road against Houston Texas (1-5-1). The buffalo bills They are the only team to close as a favorite this season, and they easily covered as they advanced in the Steelers, 38-3. Will Houston suffer the same fate at the hands of Philly’s explosive crime? As a general rule, bookies should be very careful where they put road chalk with that weight. However, after examining this, I still landed on the Eagles to cover the number.

If Houston is going to stay within the number, it has to find a way to score points. But, unfortunately, this is where the problems for the Texans begin. Philadelphia ranks fourth in the league in defensive goalscoring, giving just 16.9 points per game. There might be a chance to start a running game with the Eagles losing DT Jordan Davis. However, the strong Philadelphia high school gives them the flexibility to stack the box if necessary. Based on PFF coverage scores, Eagles’s cornerback tandem is slay Darius And the James Bradbury Each rank in the top ten in the league. This will put enormous pressure on the Texas attacking streak that allowed three sacks and eight tackles to lose last week against the Titans.

The Eagles average 28 points per game and have scored at least 24 points in six of the seven games they have played this year. And now they’re facing off against a Houston defense that ranks 28th in the EPA per game allowed and throws out explosive plays at a clip higher than any other team.

On paper, this is an incredibly favorable match for Philadelphia. In the past two weeks, the Texans have been knocked down by the Titans for 314 yards to the ground and allowed Las Vegas to suspend their highest total score of the year with a 38-20 loss. The Raiders, who placed 16th in the EPA per game, finished third in the standings in the week they faced Houston. Houston’s defense doesn’t have the horses to slow down Philadelphia’s offensive arsenal. Show Galen HurtsThe attack scored in the 30-35 range, forcing the Texans close to 17 to cover that number. Philadelphia, Tennessee and Denver ranked in the top three in defensive pass rate, and Houston scored 9 and 10 points against the Broncos and Titans. I bet we see a similar result, making this cover easy for vultures.

PHILADELPHIA, PA - OCTOBER 30: AJ Brown #11 of the Philadelphia Eagles celebrates with #1 Galen Hurts against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Lincoln Financial Field on October 30, 2022 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.  (Photo by Mitchell Leaf/Getty Images)

PHILADELPHIA, PA – OCTOBER 30: AJ Brown #11 of the Philadelphia Eagles celebrates with #1 Galen Hurts against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Lincoln Financial Field on October 30, 2022 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leaf/Getty Images)

Should we ride the success of the Eagles in the first half?

The Eagles perfect 7-0 distribution first half this season. The driver behind their success is their ability to dominate in the second quarter, which is where they have outperformed their opponents by 13.7 points per game this season. Of course, I’m happy to ride the streaks until they stop pushing, but I’ll admit I’m more comfortable playing the full game difference than the first half.

If you subscribe to the theory that a short week’s travel might affect the vultures, it will most likely manifest as early game rust. In the first quarter, Texas’ defense was solid, allowing only a 38.9% success rate to oppose offenses. Plus, Houston really plays without losing anything like massive underdogs. Teams playing for house money are more likely to take shots and possibly attempt trick play to gain traction in front of the host audience. These plays tend to happen early in the game, but this is more speculation than anything else.

The data suggests other coverage of Philly’s first half, so I can’t argue with anyone using this approach to shorten the line. However, the massive talent gap between the two teams is likely to emerge in all four seasons. I’d rather put -13.5 than be on the wrong side of the main number at -7.5 in the first half.

Statistics provided by Clevanalytics.com, pff, rbsdm (based on 90-10 WP), teamrankings.com

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